![]() “The strategy for the discoverers and entrepreneurs is to rely less on top-down planning and focus on maximum tinkering and recognizing opportunities when they present themselves.“Indeed, in some domains- such as scientific discovery and venture capital investments- there is a disproportionate payoff from the unknown, since you typically have little to lose and plenty to gain from a rare event.”.To make a killing in some industry, you need to do something beyond the currently conceived realm of possibilities (be a chef).“The payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be.”.Despite #1, we create explanations for it after the fact, making it seem “explainable and predictable.”. ![]() It is an outlier beyond the normal range of expectations because nothing in the past could point to it being likely to happen. ![]()
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